Test the reform before you fund it.

Simulation is using computer models to represent a real world process/ system. Strategy Dynamics (SD) is a simulation method, with a focus on improving the performance of a system.

This E-Book focuses on how to use SD to improve the performance of the system of land administration (LA) in developing economies. SD is based on system dynamics developed at MIT in the 1960s and used widely. SD was developed initially to make system dynamics more accessible to business executives.

Secure and enforceable land/ property rights are fundamental to social stability and economic development. Secure property rights depend on effective Land Administration (Land Admin) (LA), the system of policies, laws, organisations, and services. If LA is weak, property rights are likely to be weak.

In developed economies the following features largely exist in LA:- secure and enforceable property rights over all geographic areas; relatively few land disputes or violent demonstrations; an active well-regulated land market; extensive amounts of development capital raised using land/property as collateral.

In developing economies many features do not exist. If they do, it is often only partially, in limited geographic areas, or for certain groups, generally those who can afford to access it.

International Development Assistance (IDA) has been provided over decades to improve the LA system. While there have been successes, widespread success remains elusive.

A serious challenge is sustainability of improvements, after IDA funding ceases, and where a country has to provide internal funding to maintain the improvements, long term.

The simulation method of Strategy Dynamics (SD) is a practical way, (a new tool in the LA toolbox), to quantitatively test the effectiveness and long-term sustainability of improvements proposals, BEFORE committing substantial financial resources.

The SD approach allows time based, quantified and transparent simulation models to be built showing how organisations perform over time. This makes it possible to work out what to do on all key decisions (e.g. wanting to improve part of the Land Admin (LA system). across a business, and to continually update those insights as circumstances change (e.g. during the implementation of an improvement project). 

Many parts of the land admin (LA) system are essentially government owned business that charge fees for services. e.g. Land Registry, Property Tax, Land Zoning, Development Approvals.

Strategy Dynamics (SD) enables [Dr Kim Warren the developer of SD]: – #1The determination if a plan will work at all; #2 The design of a system so that it can perform well; #3 The management of a system so that it does perform well; #4 The fixing of a system if problems occur

Scenarios for Performance Improvement Proposals (PIP) can be set up and TESTED for Effectiveness & Sustainability BEFORE making the investment decision.

Common current approaches are the Logframe and Theory of Change. Both are qualitative and can have implicit assumptions.

SD adds considerable value by:-

• Being quantitative; having no implicit assumptions; handling indirect cause and effect via feedback loops
• Having the development logic (what is causing what- The WHY) fully explicit in the SD (simulation) model
• Enhancing stakeholder buy in by:- showing WHAT is to happen, HOW, by WHEN; testing stakeholders’ improvement proposals and What Ifs with them in a workshop setting.
• Extending timeframes past the period of Development Assistance (DA), and examining how sustainability post DA might be achieved over many years
• Containing all aspects in a single model; any change is immediately reflected throughout.
• Being able to use SD models in:- feasibility; design; project appraisal; M&E and testing modifications; reviews; checking and adjusting for sustainability.
• Models are easily modified and components can be reused in new situations.
• Being able to incorporate the pathways of FELA (Framework for Effective LA) and FFPLA (Fit for Purpose Land Administration)
• (with training) SD provides the capability for Land Agencies and Finance Departments in developing countries & NGOs (Non-Government Organisation) to:- test their own “improvement” ideas for effectiveness and sustainability; work with in country stakeholders to achieve “buy in”; build a business case to approach a DA (development assistance) partner.

The main take away point is NOT the results or numbers from any particular example BUT IS the utility of the SD approach itself.

The SD approach provides the means for anyone to:-

• Identify desired Performance Improvement Objectives (PIOs)
• Illustrate past and future desired and feared performances, using Performance Over Time (POT) graphs for each PIO
• Identify the System where performance is to be improved
• Build an SD simulation model of the system to be improved, portraying:- the development /improvement logic; the proposed improvements/scenarios;
• TEST proposals for SUCCESS [ ie for ACHIEVEMENT of improvement targets (the desired future), with aid, and SUSTAINABILITY of improvements post aid , when solely reliant on in-country budgets]
• Reiterate and modify as necessary:- include risk analysis; What Ifs; project evaluation with financials

This provides the means for anyone to:-

• Rework an analysis with different perception(s) of a situation where improvements are considered necessary (this can be valuable when some stakeholders/gatekeepers disagree, and agreement is necessary on What constitutes SUCCESS and How it will be achieved, so that incountry finance and aid funding will be approved)
• Rework or extend any of the illustrative examples
• Apply the SD approach to any aspect in the Land Admin (LA) system

Simulation is used operationally in many areas in developed economies, and in some instances for developing economies. WHY NOT trial simulation operationally to Improve Land Admin (LA) with Development Assistance funding?

Is Land Admin so different to other areas that Simulation is not applicable?

IF SO, WHY is SIMULATION NOT APPLICABLE to LAND ADMIN?